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sdmay be smoother because import shares of relatively
volatile commodities such as food, petroleum, and
industrial materials have fallen significantly in the last
fifteen years. At the same time, services—which tend to
grow at a less variable rate than goods—have accounted
for an increasingly large share of total U.S. exports
since the early 1980s.
In contrast to growth in housing investment and trade,
growth in consumer spending was only slightly less
volatile in the second period than in the first. The size of
quarterly fluctuations in consumer spending growth fell
from an average of 3.3 percent in 1959-83 to 2.1 percent
in 1984-98. As we note below, however, the large size of
this component relative to aggregate GDP makes even a
small decline noteworthy. Some analysts have attributed
the volatility decline in this component to a shift away
from the consumption of goods toward the consumption
of services. To be sure, spending on consumer services
tends to be les...